In a generic matchup - as in, which party would you vote for in november - the democrats hold an 18 point advantage. Yes, you read that right, 18 points.

Usually when you get margins like that, you are talking about historic gains for the party in the lead, one reason why many Republicans have openly talked about limiting their losses in November.

But after launching their rump sessions on the floor of the House last Friday, GOP lawmakers really believe now that they have a fighting chance to change the dynamic of this election, and alter the political landscape for November.

I used the title for this blog because when you look back on the last four Presidential elections, Democrats have often led in August, only to lose in November.

Michael Dukakis was ahead, but then he took a week off in August of 1988, got hit by the Willie Horton advertisement and never recovered.

John Kerry was ahead in August, but did little to push back against attacks from the Swift Boat group and at the GOP convention.

Al Gore was ahead in August, but never could get things going in the right direction against then Gov. George W. Bush. (Just think of what a few more days in Florida might have done.)

I'm certainly not predicting that the Dems are about to plummet in the polls and implode in August of 2008. But you cannot ignore history, or as Santayanna said, you are doomed to repeat it.

What I find really interesting is the difference in polling data between the Congressional and Presidential race.

Democrats are up big in the generic polls for Congress. Barack Obama meanwhile is only slightly ahead, or even tied/behind in the presidential preference polls.

There seems to be a difference of at least 10-12 points between Democrats for Congress and the Democrat for President.

Usually the Presidential candidate has the coattails. This time, the Congressional candidates may be the ones dragging along the Democratic hopeful.

What explains it? Barack Obama hasn't closed the deal. Meanwhile, even though John Mccain's campaign has been awful at times, he has had a surge in the last 10 days.

We still wait for their VP choices.