| Jamie Dupree |
Hillary Looks To Win Big In West Virginia
If you are looking for Election Suspense on this day of the West Virginia Primary, the only issue may be the size of the victory margin for Hillary Clinton.
With some polls showing Clinton ahead by over 40 points, the never-say-die Senator from New York is expected to do very well today in what's been a bellwether state for the Democrats.
"It's going to be a big, big win for Hillary," predicted Hannah Geffert, Research Assistant Professor of Political Science at Shepherd University in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.
"I think a lot of West Virginians admire her tenacity, her moxie, her sheer will to stay in the race," Geffert said in an interview on Monday at her faculty office.
The quiet college town not far from the Civil War battlefield at Antietam was front and center in the presidential race last week, when Hillary Clinton visited a day after her narrow win in Indiana and big loss in North Carolina.
"We have a long history with the Clintons here," said Geffert. "The last time West Virginia voted with the Democrats in a Presidential election was when Bill Clinton was running."
You often hear about how important it is to carry Ohio or Pennsylvania. Don't leave West Virginia out of that victory equation.
No Democrat has won the White House without carrying West Virginia since 1916, when Woodrow Wilson lost the state, but still won re-election.
Demographically, this state is not one where Barack Obama would be expected to do well, and he acknowledged as much during his one stop in the state capital on Monday.
"I am extraordinarily honored that some of you will support me," a flag-pin wearing Obama told a crowd in Charleston. "I understand that many more in this state will probably support Senator Clinton."
"We are 90 percent white here in West Virginia," noted Professor Geffert. "There are counties where there are almost no minorities at all," saying Clinton might even have an outside chance at sweeping every county today.
If Clinton does win big tonight, I would bet that the issue of race will be raised by some network commentators. In other words, the hillbillies of West Virginia won't vote for a black candidate.
But Geffert argues race is more of a subtext to this Obama-Clinton fight for voters in West Virginia than the main course.
"Culturally they are closer to Hillary than Barack," said Geffert. "I wouldn't say it's as much racial as cultural."
"A number of people believe that Barack Obama is actually Muslim. This has been spread by a number of churches here," the professor added.
Obama was asked about that as he shot some pool before leaving Charleston for a stop in Kentucky.
"I'm a practicing Christian," Obama told a reporter. "We notice these e-mails get sent out in each successive state that we were campaigning in, which indicates that it is not just a random sort of viral thing. I think you know this is a dirty trick that folks are playing on voters."
While Clinton has made it clear she's not getting out of this race, what about the idea that West Virginia could be a last hurrah?
"I think there are a number of women who know that Hillary does not have a chance at this point but will be voting for Hillary to give her a nice, graceful way to bow out with a victory," added Geffert.
It sounds like a good Hollywood ending, but with Bill Clinton working hard in Oregon and his schedule showing events in coming days in Montana and South Dakota, it is hard to imagine that Hillary would just give up after a West Virginia win.
Of course, the bottom line will be delegates. What if Clinton wins by more than 40 points?
Clinton even had one supporter, the West Virginia state Senate Democratic leader talking about winning with over 80 percent of the vote.
"I think it's possible, but it doesn't make much difference," said Geffert, reaching over to her desk to grab a few more statistics for me.
"If she gets 80 percent of the vote, she'll only pick up 16 delegates. So, even the best case scenario, she's not going to get that many more," added the Professor, saying a plus-eight result is maybe a more likely outcome.
"It's not going to be enough," said Geffert.
On my way out the door on a rainy, chilly day, I wondered what must be going through the minds of those working on the Clinton campaign, when the constant message in the news is that there is no way Hillary can win.
I drove up the road, past some signs for Hillary, Obama and Ron Paul and headed over to Martinsburg. Just as in other states, I saw some Hillary supporters waving signs at a stoplight, but no Obama supporters were anywhere to be found on street corners. Maybe I just always miss them.
It wasn't too far from where I crashed about 15 years ago in a 200 mile, one-day bicycle race that took me down many of the same roads that I drove on today. There was no blood to worry about this time at least.
Soon enough, I doubled back to Harpers Ferry, a place with more history than I could dare fit in my blog. It was pouring rain, so I kept going.
Last week, the Battle of Tippecanoe and this week a lot of Civil War reminders. Not bad for the guy who is usually bolted to his desk in the U.S. Capitol.
What's next? Lexington? Salem? Pierre? Missoula?
"It's going to be a big, big win for Hillary," predicted Hannah Geffert, Research Assistant Professor of Political Science at Shepherd University in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.
"I think a lot of West Virginians admire her tenacity, her moxie, her sheer will to stay in the race," Geffert said in an interview on Monday at her faculty office.
The quiet college town not far from the Civil War battlefield at Antietam was front and center in the presidential race last week, when Hillary Clinton visited a day after her narrow win in Indiana and big loss in North Carolina.
"We have a long history with the Clintons here," said Geffert. "The last time West Virginia voted with the Democrats in a Presidential election was when Bill Clinton was running."
You often hear about how important it is to carry Ohio or Pennsylvania. Don't leave West Virginia out of that victory equation.
No Democrat has won the White House without carrying West Virginia since 1916, when Woodrow Wilson lost the state, but still won re-election.
Demographically, this state is not one where Barack Obama would be expected to do well, and he acknowledged as much during his one stop in the state capital on Monday.
"I am extraordinarily honored that some of you will support me," a flag-pin wearing Obama told a crowd in Charleston. "I understand that many more in this state will probably support Senator Clinton."
"We are 90 percent white here in West Virginia," noted Professor Geffert. "There are counties where there are almost no minorities at all," saying Clinton might even have an outside chance at sweeping every county today.
If Clinton does win big tonight, I would bet that the issue of race will be raised by some network commentators. In other words, the hillbillies of West Virginia won't vote for a black candidate.
But Geffert argues race is more of a subtext to this Obama-Clinton fight for voters in West Virginia than the main course.
"Culturally they are closer to Hillary than Barack," said Geffert. "I wouldn't say it's as much racial as cultural."
"A number of people believe that Barack Obama is actually Muslim. This has been spread by a number of churches here," the professor added.
Obama was asked about that as he shot some pool before leaving Charleston for a stop in Kentucky.
"I'm a practicing Christian," Obama told a reporter. "We notice these e-mails get sent out in each successive state that we were campaigning in, which indicates that it is not just a random sort of viral thing. I think you know this is a dirty trick that folks are playing on voters."
While Clinton has made it clear she's not getting out of this race, what about the idea that West Virginia could be a last hurrah?
"I think there are a number of women who know that Hillary does not have a chance at this point but will be voting for Hillary to give her a nice, graceful way to bow out with a victory," added Geffert.
It sounds like a good Hollywood ending, but with Bill Clinton working hard in Oregon and his schedule showing events in coming days in Montana and South Dakota, it is hard to imagine that Hillary would just give up after a West Virginia win.
Of course, the bottom line will be delegates. What if Clinton wins by more than 40 points?
Clinton even had one supporter, the West Virginia state Senate Democratic leader talking about winning with over 80 percent of the vote.
"I think it's possible, but it doesn't make much difference," said Geffert, reaching over to her desk to grab a few more statistics for me.
"If she gets 80 percent of the vote, she'll only pick up 16 delegates. So, even the best case scenario, she's not going to get that many more," added the Professor, saying a plus-eight result is maybe a more likely outcome.
"It's not going to be enough," said Geffert.
On my way out the door on a rainy, chilly day, I wondered what must be going through the minds of those working on the Clinton campaign, when the constant message in the news is that there is no way Hillary can win.
I drove up the road, past some signs for Hillary, Obama and Ron Paul and headed over to Martinsburg. Just as in other states, I saw some Hillary supporters waving signs at a stoplight, but no Obama supporters were anywhere to be found on street corners. Maybe I just always miss them.
It wasn't too far from where I crashed about 15 years ago in a 200 mile, one-day bicycle race that took me down many of the same roads that I drove on today. There was no blood to worry about this time at least.
Soon enough, I doubled back to Harpers Ferry, a place with more history than I could dare fit in my blog. It was pouring rain, so I kept going.
Last week, the Battle of Tippecanoe and this week a lot of Civil War reminders. Not bad for the guy who is usually bolted to his desk in the U.S. Capitol.
What's next? Lexington? Salem? Pierre? Missoula?
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