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Jamie Dupree

Superdelegate Scoreboard, Vol 18

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Jamie Dupree
@ April 30, 2008 12:00 AM
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With six days to go before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, there is a bit of uncertainty edging into the Democratic race again, as Hillary Clinton shows more strength in Indiana and may be closing the race in the Tar Heel State.

But again, we will remind you that the only numbers that matter right now are the actual delegate totals, and on that score, Barack Obama continues to hold a strong lead.

Clinton won the most influential delegate of the day, getting North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, who was once a supporter of John Edwards.

One North Carolina lawmaker told me in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday that the Easley endorsement should not be underestimated by any means, saying that Easley "has been a very popular Governor."

She also chalked up Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO) giving her two superdelegates for the day, which is what Obama came up with as well, leaving the race where it started at sunrise.

One of those endorsing Obama was Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) who said "I am inspired by his message of change and of hope for our future."

Kentucky votes on May 20 along with Oregon.

Also joining the Obama Bandwagon was Iowa superdelegate Richard Machaceck, who is a member of the Democratic National Committee.

"I think it (the race) needs to be over and in good conscience, I can't fly in the face of my precinct, county and district (which voted for Obama,)" he said.

As I have said for weeks, every day that Obama gets one or two delegates, he makes it that much more difficult for Clinton to win this nomination.

By now, we've got right around 300 uncommitted superdelegates.  How many of those Obama and Clinton will need for a majority depends on how well they do in the remaining contests.

If Obama is up by 150 pledged delegates when all the primaries are over, Clinton will need 225 of the last 300 superdelegates.  That's 75 percent.

I'm sorry, but that's an almost impossible number, especially after Obama has won over 80 percent of the superdelegates since Super Tuesday.

That's why the May 6th primaries are so critical.  If Obama can win a majority of delegates that day, he will likely be on his way to the nomination.

But if Clinton wins both Indiana and North Carolina, watch out.  I told a colleague of mine at one of the TV networks that a double Clinton win might mean she's going to win the nomination.

"We just said the same thing here," he said.



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